The year 2026 brings a critical juncture for Australia's alliance with the United States, a bond that has endured for 75 years. But with the rise of Donald Trump, the very foundation of this alliance is under threat. As we reflect on the past year, it's easy to overlook the profound changes Trump has brought to global politics, shifting the tectonic plates of international relations. Australia's relationship with the US, once a symbol of stability, now faces an uncertain future.
The Changing Global Landscape
Trump's presidency has been marked by his obsession with anti-immigrant nativism, anti-trade protectionism, and America First nationalism. This ideology has led him to attack the very fabric of global institutions, from the United Nations to the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate. Australia, deeply intertwined with these global efforts, finds itself in a precarious position.
The US-Europe Relationship
Trump's disdain for Europe is evident in his words and actions. He has labeled European leaders as 'weak' and accused them of prioritizing political correctness over strength. His National Security Strategy paper paints a grim picture of Europe's future, questioning the reliability of its allies. The tension between the US and Europe is palpable, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warning of the threat Russia poses and Pope Leo urging Trump not to 'break apart' the transatlantic alliance.
The Americas Under Trump
In the Western Hemisphere, Trump's bullying tactics are on full display. Without congressional authorization, he has directed military action against drug traffickers and threatened Colombian President Gustavo Petro. The Monroe Doctrine, once a cornerstone of US policy, has been revived, ensuring US primacy over the Americas.
Media and Democracy
Trump's influence extends to the media, a critical pillar of democracy. His involvement in the Netflix-Warner Brothers deal and his disdain for CNN highlight his desire to control the narrative. As Australia grapples with the reality of antisemitism, the question arises: How can the alliance with the US endure if Trump exerts state control over America's media?
The Australian Perspective
Australia's alliance with the US is rooted in shared democratic values. However, with Trump's actions and ideology, these values are being tested. The free-trade relationship, AUSMIN meetings, and AUKUS commitment were forged in a different era. As we move into 2026, Australia must confront the new reality and question the kind of alliance it needs in a world shaped by Trump's America.
The Way Forward
The main game is not the transactional issues but the existential ones. As Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, notes, it's time for Australia to acknowledge the new reality and start finding answers. The alliance must evolve to address the challenges posed by Trump's America, ensuring Australia's safety and security in a rapidly changing global landscape.
