Here's a bold statement: Liverpool's set-piece struggles could cost them a top-four finish in the Premier League. And this is the part most people miss—it's not just about their attacking flair or defensive solidity in open play; it's the dead balls that are letting them down. Arne Slot, the man at the helm, is crystal clear: if Liverpool don't address their set-piece shortcomings, their chances of breaking into the top four, let alone retaining their title, are slim to none.
Liverpool's title defense has been nothing short of miserable, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a mere 1% chance of holding onto their crown in 2025-26. But here's the twist: despite their struggles, a recent surge has propelled them to fifth place, just a hair's breadth behind fourth-placed Chelsea on goal difference. But here's where it gets controversial—this resurgence comes despite Liverpool being one of the Premier League's worst teams when it comes to set-pieces, both in attack and defense.
Let's break it down. In terms of goals scored from set-pieces, Liverpool have managed a paltry three this season, excluding penalties, putting them on par with Brentford and only ahead of rock-bottom Wolves. Is this a tactical oversight, or is there more to the story? At the other end, they've conceded 11 goals from set-pieces, the joint-second most in the league, with only Bournemouth faring worse. To put it in perspective, 44% of the goals Liverpool have conceded this season have come from dead balls—a staggering statistic that highlights a glaring weakness.
When it comes to shots and expected goals (xG) from set-pieces, the numbers don't lie. Liverpool are fourth-last for shots (54) and second-last for xG (4.13), painting a picture of a team that's neglecting a crucial aspect of the modern game. Meanwhile, their top-four rivals—Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United—are all in double figures for set-piece goals scored this season. Could this be the Achilles' heel that derails Liverpool's ambitions?
Slot isn't mincing words. He knows the importance of set-pieces in today's game and is frustrated by Liverpool's current record. Reflecting on last season, he points out that halfway through, they hadn't conceded a single set-piece goal. Fast forward to now, and their set-piece balance is a dismal minus-eight. Here's a thought-provoking question: If Liverpool are still in contention for the top four despite this glaring weakness, how much better could they be if they fixed it?
Slot's argument is compelling: Liverpool are the only team at the top end of the table with a negative set-piece balance. Yet, they're still level on points with fourth place. Imagine if they could turn their set-piece fortunes around. As Slot puts it, their open-play chances created are the best in the league, so addressing this one area could be the game-changer.
Looking ahead, Liverpool face Wolves and then host Leeds United on New Year's Day. Historically, the Reds have dominated the festive period, winning 17 of their last 20 Premier League matches between Christmas and New Year. But this season, with their set-piece struggles, nothing is guaranteed. Will Liverpool finally address this weakness, or will it be their undoing? The ball, quite literally, is in their court. What do you think? Is Slot right to sound the alarm, or is there more to Liverpool's success than meets the eye? Let us know in the comments!
