Economic and event calendar in Asia for Monday, December 15, 2025: RBA, BoJ Tankan, and China data
Today’s schedule is particularly busy, featuring several high-impact releases and speeches that could move markets:
- Bank of Japan Tankan
- China's November activity data, including industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate
- A senior Reserve Bank of Australia official delivering remarks
The following notes break down each item, with clarifications to help readers understand what to watch and why it matters.
Bank of Japan Tankan overview
The Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan is a principal gauge of business sentiment across Japan. Analysts expect a modest improvement this quarter.
Notes on Tankan basics:
- Tankan is short for "Tanshin Kansoku," a term roughly meaning "Short-term Economic Observation."
- The BOJ publishes Tankan quarterly, and it remains one of the most closely watched indicators for Japan’s economy.
- The survey reaches thousands of firms, spanning large and small, manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
- Questions focus on current business conditions, as well as expectations for the coming quarter and year.
- Covered areas include production, sales, profits, capex (investments in plants and equipment), employment, prices, and more.
Interpreting the headline
- The report is presented as diffusion indexes, which measure the gap between the share of firms optimistic about business conditions and those pessimistic.
- A positive diffusion index signals more optimism than pessimism among respondents; a negative reading points to the opposite.
Breakdown by sector
The Tankan results are reported for four categories to illuminate sectoral and firm-size dynamics:
- Large manufacturers
- Large non-manufacturers
- Small manufacturers
- Small non-manufacturers
China November data highlights
China releases its key November activity data on Monday, with several figures expected to show a mixed picture:
- Industrial production and retail sales are anticipated to edge higher from October, with year-on-year rates around 5.1% for industrial production and 2.9% for retail sales.
- Fixed-asset investment is expected to remain in contraction, around -2.8% year-to-date.
- With limited new stimulus in place, housing price declines across the 70-city index may persist, and property investment is likely to slow further.
Policy stance and potential easing
Policy support in recent months has been restrained as policymakers aim to ensure that the 2025 growth target remains achievable. Still, the market should watch for possible easing measures in the coming months. As 2026–the first year of the next Five-Year Plan–approaches, policy conversations are likely to intensify.
RBA speech: Andrea Brischetto
From the Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrea Brischetto, Head of the Financial Stability Department, is scheduled to speak at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference in Sydney.
Key timing:
- Speech due at 13:20 local Sydney time, which corresponds to 02:20 GMT or 21:20 US Eastern Time on the prior day due to time zone differences.
What to watch for
- Brischetto’s remarks could shed light on the RBA’s policy path, financial stability priorities, and potential shifts in communication ahead of upcoming decisions.
Overall takeaway
With a packed calendar of central-bank signals and economic releases across Asia, today offers important clues about the trajectory of inflation, growth, and financial stability in the region. Traders and analysts will be parsing Tankan optimism, China’s demand indicators, and the RBA’s policy narrative to calibrate their positions for the coming weeks.
What are your thoughts on Tankan’s direction and China’s growth indicators? Do you think the next round of policy easing will arrive sooner or later than currently anticipated?
